Valued Customers
LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | ATL | 18.8 | 21.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | CAR | 15.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | DAL | 13.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | LAR | 20.9 | 19.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | PIT | 15.9 | 17.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | NYJ | 9.1 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | LAR | 8.3 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Chargers D/ST | DAL | 4.4 | 12.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jayden Reed | CHI | 11.2 | 11.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts))
Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.
Week 16 playoff semifinal against 4th and pinches (10-5). Our 9-6 Valued Customers face a critical matchup with ESPN projecting us as 2-point underdogs (123.5 vs 125.5). Key advantage: Jacoby Brissett has emerged as a matchup-proof QB3, posting 20+ points in every Arizona start, facing a vulnerable Falcons defense in a dome. The Chargers D/ST draw the best matchup in fantasy against a broken Cowboys offense (32nd worst). Concerns center on Rashee Rice's ceiling capped by Mahomes injury (Minshew starts) and MHJ remaining OUT with a heel injury.
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 18.8 | 21.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 15.2 | 15.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 13.2 | 14.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | WR | 15.9 | 17.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 20.9 | 19.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.1 | 10.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | RB/WR/TE | 17.8 | 15.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.3 | 10.0 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 4.3 | 12.0 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 7.5 | 6.0 |
| Isiah Pacheco (bench) | RB | BE | 9.1 | 8.0 |
| Jayden Reed (bench) | WR | BE | 11.2 | 11.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 17.4 | 16.0 |
| Rams D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 5.2 | 7.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 13.1 | 11.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 8.7 | 8.5 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | IR | 14.2 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB | 16.6 | 18.0 |
| Michael Carter | RB | RB | 11.0 | --- |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB | 15.2 | 12.0 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | WR | 13.5 | 14.0 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR | 13.4 | 11.0 |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE | 16.8 | 13.0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB/WR/TE | 23.8 | 17.0 |
| Harrison Butker | K | K | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 5.7 | 8.0 |
| Aaron Rodgers (bench) | QB | BE | 14.8 | --- |
| Colby Parkinson (bench) | TE | BE | 10.0 | --- |
| Jordan Addison (bench) | WR | BE | 10.5 | --- |
| Kareem Hunt (bench) | RB | BE | 10.5 | --- |
| Mason Taylor (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Rome Odunze (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | 10.0 |
| Romeo Doubs (bench) | WR | BE | 9.6 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 17.4 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 53% MODERATE, 21% BOOM. XGB: 52% moderate, 27% boom. Both agree on MODERATE. Cold weather (35°F) limits ceiling but CHI allows 22.4 fppg to QBs (23rd). Bench QB behind Brissett. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 9.0-24.0 range).
Context: O/U: 46.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 18.8 | LLM 21.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14% boom (this week). MC strongly favors BOOM mode - Brissett has 20+ floor in every AZ start. ATL allows top-6 QB in 2 of 3 weeks. Dome game, high total (46.5). Trust MC historical pattern. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 21.0 pts (within 12.4-30.4 range).
Context: O/U: 46.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 13.9 | 16.0 | 20.6 | +6.7 |
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 59% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 48% bust (this week). MC/XGB disagree - XGB predicts bust but Irving is RB11 since Week 8, leads NFL in YAC/att. Trust MC volume/opportunity. CAR 22nd vs RB. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within 8.2-20.2 range).
Context: O/U: 45.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 59% | BOOM: 17%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | ATL | 15.2 | 14.0 | 8.1 | -7.1 |
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 8.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 61% MODERATE. XGB: 47% moderate. Both favor MODERATE but low ceiling. Backup RB, IND 11th vs RB. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.5 pts (within 2.7-14.7 range).
Context: O/U: 37.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 25% BOOM. XGB: 59% bust. MC/XGB disagree - but Hampton in dome game (49.5 total), DAL 25th vs RB. Trust game environment over XGB bust signal. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 6.1-18.1 range).
Context: O/U: 49.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 59% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 61% BUST. XGB: 58% bust. BOTH agree BUST. Giants offense struggling, MIN defense solid, cold weather. Deep bench. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within -1.0-6.5 range at upper end).
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 70% BUST (historical). XGB: 60% bust. BOTH agree on BUST. Mahomes OUT = Minshew starts. TEN 26th vs RB (good defense). Low total (37.5). Weather concerns. Bench play. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within 1.0-8.5 range).
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 19.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 44% MODERATE, 27% BOOM. XGB: 66% moderate. Both align on MODERATE. WR1 with Metcalf banged up, LAR 24th vs WR. Thursday night spotlight. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 19.0 pts (within 12.4-24.4 range).
Context: O/U: 44.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 20.6 | 22.0 | 18.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST, 37% MODERATE. XGB: 62% moderate. Rookie on bench, CAR offense limited. Weather-neutral. Mode: MODERATE (bench). Projection: 11.0 pts (within 7.7-19.7 range).
Context: O/U: 45.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: INJURY: Heel injury, OUT - missed 2 straight games, 4 of last 5. NOT on IR so could return Week 17. IR stash only. Mode: OUT. Projection: 0.0 pts.
Context: O/U: 46.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 17.8 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 39% BOOM, 37% BUST. XGB: 45% moderate. High variance but MAHOMES OUT - Minshew downgrade caps ceiling. TEN 29th vs WR elite matchup but low total (37.5). Reduce from BOOM to MODERATE. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within 10.0-22.0 range).
Context: O/U: 37.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%
XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 17.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM, 44% MODERATE. XGB: 44% moderate, 43% bust. MC/XGB lean moderate but HIGHEST total of week (51.5) in dome. Lions offense elite. BOOM environment. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 17.0 pts (within 16.9-31.9 range at low end).
Context: O/U: 49.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAR | 13.9 | 18.0 | 26.4 | +12.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 53% MODERATE. XGB: 52% bust. Watson questionable, cold weather (35°F). CHI 30th vs WR elite matchup but Love may struggle. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 11.0 pts (within 6.5-18.5 range).
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 10.0 | - | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | CHI | 7.7 | - | 9.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | ARI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | CLE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | WSH | 11.3 | - | 0.0 | -11.3 |
| 1 | DET | 11.2 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 45% MODERATE, 30% BOOM. XGB: 57% bust. MC/XGB disagree - but INCENTIVE ALERT: needs 8 catches for 250k bonus. Saints may target him. NYJ 16th vs TE. Dome game. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 4.3-13.3 range).
Context: O/U: 40.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 57% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -2.7 |
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 17.4 | LLM 16.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%
Notes: MC: 53% MODERATE, 21% BOOM. XGB: 52% moderate, 27% boom. Both agree on MODERATE. Cold weather (35°F) limits ceiling but CHI allows 22.4 fppg to QBs (23rd). Bench QB behind Brissett. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 9.0-24.0 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 11.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 49% BUST, 37% MODERATE. XGB: 62% moderate. Rookie on bench, CAR offense limited. Weather-neutral. Mode: MODERATE (bench). Projection: 11.0 pts (within 7.7-19.7 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 23%
Notes: INJURY: Heel injury, OUT - missed 2 straight games, 4 of last 5. NOT on IR so could return Week 17. IR stash only. Mode: OUT. Projection: 0.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 17.8 | LLM 15.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%
XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 31%
Notes: MC: 39% BOOM, 37% BUST. XGB: 45% moderate. High variance but MAHOMES OUT - Minshew downgrade caps ceiling. TEN 29th vs WR elite matchup but low total (37.5). Reduce from BOOM to MODERATE. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within 10.0-22.0 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 8.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37%
Notes: MC: 61% MODERATE. XGB: 47% moderate. Both favor MODERATE but low ceiling. Backup RB, IND 11th vs RB. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.5 pts (within 2.7-14.7 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 5.2 | LLM 7.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 59%
Notes: MC: 40% BUST, 38% MODERATE. XGB: 59% bust. Both lean bust/moderate. SEA offense decent at home. Bench D/ST. Mode: MODERATE (low). Projection: 7.0 pts (within 3.2-15.2 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DET | 4.2 | 4.0 | -1.0 | -5.2 |
| 14 | ARI | 6.9 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -0.9 |
| 13 | CAR | 7.5 | 10.0 | 1.0 | -6.5 |
| 12 | TB | 5.7 | - | 20.0 | +14.3 |
| 11 | SEA | 5.4 | - | 5.0 | -0.4 |
| 10 | SF | 6.4 | - | 5.0 | -1.4 |
| 9 | NO | 8.2 | - | 10.0 | +1.8 |
| 7 | JAX | 6.7 | - | 9.0 | +2.3 |
| 6 | BAL | 6.2 | - | 16.0 | +9.8 |
| 5 | SF | 7.0 | - | -2.0 | -9.0 |
| 4 | IND | 5.7 | - | 6.0 | +0.3 |
| 3 | PHI | 5.2 | - | 7.0 | +1.8 |
| 2 | TEN | 7.4 | - | 9.0 | +1.6 |
| 1 | HOU | 5.6 | - | 12.0 | +6.4 |
Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 58%
Notes: MC: 61% BUST. XGB: 58% bust. BOTH agree BUST. Giants offense struggling, MIN defense solid, cold weather. Deep bench. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within -1.0-6.5 range at upper end).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 70% BUST (historical). XGB: 60% bust. BOTH agree on BUST. Mahomes OUT = Minshew starts. TEN 26th vs RB (good defense). Low total (37.5). Weather concerns. Bench play. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within 1.0-8.5 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Jaguars D/ST (D/ST): 48% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | JAX | 5.7 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 48% | 32% | 20% | HIGH |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | 13.5 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 30% | 50% | 20% | MEDIUM |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | 16.6 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 18% | 59% | 23% | LOW |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 16.8 | 13.0 | MODERATE | 17% | 63% | 20% | LOW |
| Harrison Butker | K | KC | 8.0 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 16% | 26% | 57% | LOW |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | CAR | 15.2 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 14% | 59% | 27% | LOW |
| Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | 12.6 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 9% | 44% | 48% | LOW |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 13.4 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 8% | 36% | 56% | LOW |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 23.8 | 17.0 | MODERATE | 7% | 23% | 70% | LOW |
Jaguars D/ST: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 42%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 20%)
DK Metcalf: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 30% | Bust 20%)
Baker Mayfield: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 23%)
Trey McBride: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 20%)
Harrison Butker: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 57%)
Rico Dowdle: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 19%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 27%)
Rome Odunze: MC (BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 8%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 48%)
Michael Wilson: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 56%)
Jahmyr Gibbs: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 7% | Bust 70%)
Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 7.6 | 53% | 18% | 0.0% | |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 9.1 | 52% | 17% | 0.0% | |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.1 | 47% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Zach Ertz | TE | 10.2 | 28% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 7.9 | 27% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 10.7 | 26% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 7.8 | 24% | 38% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.0 | 22% | 28% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 8.8 | 22% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 8.4 | 20% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 9.9 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Eddy Pineiro | K | 10.0 | 17% | 45% | 0.0% | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | 7.4 | 16% | 45% | 0.0% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 11.9 | 15% | 39% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.9 | 15% | 48% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 16.4 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% | 14% | 50% | |
| Sam Darnold | 15.5 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:24% | 13% | 44% | |
| Kyler Murray | 16.8 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% | 11% | 54% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.1 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% | 47% | 20% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.0 | BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% | 22% | 28% | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 7.4 | BUST:41%, MODERATE:56%, BOOM:2% | 16% | 45% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.7 | BUST:33%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% | 12% | 57% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | 7.7 | BUST:56%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:10% | 9% | 60% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.3 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 61% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 9.9 | BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% | 18% | 48% | |
| Quentin Johnston | 11.9 | BUST:29%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:18% | 15% | 39% | |
| Garrett Wilson | 14.9 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:22% | 15% | 48% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.1 | BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30% | 14% | 53% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.6 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9% | 9% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 10.2 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34% | 28% | 24% | |
| Evan Engram | 7.9 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% | 27% | 24% | |
| Hunter Henry | 9.7 | BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 62% | |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 9.2 | BUST:39%, MODERATE:47%, BOOM:14% | 8% | 58% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 10.7 | 26% | 26% | |
| Eddy Pineiro | 10.0 | 17% | 45% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.5 | 9% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 7.6 | 53% | 18% | |
| Chargers D/ST | 9.1 | 52% | 17% | |
| Commanders D/ST | 7.8 | 24% | 38% |
Win Probability
Floor: -37.6 pts | Median: +5.5 pts | Ceiling: +47.5 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 21.0 | 4.1-27.9 | ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 13% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 15.0 | 5.1-23.9 | ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 14.0 | 3.7-24.0 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 19.0 | 6.4-30.3 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 15.0 | 6.6-27.4 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 17.0 | 4.2-26.2 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.9-16.7 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 12.0 | 0.9-18.0 | ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 10.0 | 5.4-18.9 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 8% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 16.0 | 6.7-27.5 | ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 8.5 | 2.6-18.0 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.6-18.1 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 53% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 2.2-15.0 | ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 43% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 11.0 | 4.9-25.6 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Jayden Reed | WR | HIGH | 11.0 | 4.5-21.4 | ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 13% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 7.0 | 1.1-18.3 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 34% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 0.0 | 3.8-21.3 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 17% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | MED | 18.0 | 6.5-28.0 | ↑15+: 59% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | HIGH | 17.0 | 7.5-39.7 | ↑15+: 61% | ↓5-: 1% | |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | HIGH | 12.0 | 3.3-27.4 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Michael Carter | RB | HIGH | 8.7 | 1.2-17.1 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 32% | |
| DK Metcalf | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 5.0-22.6 | ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Michael Wilson | WR | HIGH | 11.0 | 3.3-30.5 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Trey McBride | TE | MED | 13.0 | 8.3-29.4 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.0 | 0.4-17.8 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Harrison Butker | K | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.9-14.7 | ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 26% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | HIGH | 14.8 | 5.7-25.1 | ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.4-20.0 | ↑15+: 24% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Rome Odunze | WR | HIGH | 10.0 | 3.0-21.8 | ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Jordan Addison | WR | HIGH | 12.2 | 5.4-21.2 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.6-20.3 | ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | HIGH | 9.3 | 2.3-19.2 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Mason Taylor | TE | HIGH | 7.6 | 1.3-15.5 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 38% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 17% @ 24.3 | 59% @ 14.2 | 25% @ 5.9 | 13.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 27% @ 28.7 | 44% @ 18.4 | 29% @ 7.6 | 18.1 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 39% @ 24.4 | 24% @ 16.0 | 37% @ 8.2 | 16.4 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 25% @ 23.1 | 43% @ 12.1 | 32% @ 5.2 | 12.6 |
| Jason Myers | K | 25% @ 18.3 | 44% @ 11.9 | 31% @ 6.5 | 11.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 30% @ 14.9 | 45% @ 8.8 | 25% @ 3.7 | 9.4 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 29% @ 24.4 | 44% @ 15.7 | 28% @ 5.4 | 15.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 74% @ 21.4 | 2% @ 14.7 | 23% @ 5.9 | 17.6 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 36% @ 15.0 | 42% @ 8.4 | 22% @ 2.8 | 9.5 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 4.4 | 12.0 | BOOM | 55.0% | 29.8% | 15.2% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 14.2 | 0.0 | OUT | 42.1% | 35.4% | 22.6% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 17.4 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 26.7% | 52.3% | 20.9% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.8 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 23.7% | 45.1% | 31.3% |
| Jason Myers | K | 8.3 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 23.3% | 55.1% | 21.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.1 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 17.9% | 25.6% | 56.6% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 13.1 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 16.9% | 61.6% | 21.5% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 8.7 | 8.5 | MODERATE | 16.1% | 46.9% | 37.0% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 18.8 | 21.0 | BOOM | 13.7% | 50.2% | 36.1% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 15.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 12.9% | 38.9% | 48.2% |
| Jayden Reed | WR | 11.2 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 12.9% | 35.6% | 51.5% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 15.9 | 17.0 | BOOM | 12.3% | 44.4% | 43.4% |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 9.1 | 8.0 | BUST | 11.9% | 28.2% | 59.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.9 | 19.0 | MODERATE | 11.4% | 65.9% | 22.7% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 5.2 | 7.0 | MODERATE | 10.8% | 30.2% | 59.0% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 7.5 | 6.0 | BUST | 9.8% | 31.8% | 58.4% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 13.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 8.7% | 32.5% | 58.8% |
Week 16 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-5 | 1861.3 | 1676.5 | +184.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 10-5 | 1771.1 | 1765.4 | +5.7 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 9-6 | 1822.8 | 1558.6 | +264.2 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W5 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8-7 | 1759.9 | 1725.0 | +35.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 100.0% |
| 5 | Wookie of the Year | 8-7 | 1705.9 | 1731.9 | -26.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Meat Pistols | 8-7 | 1515.0 | 1664.9 | -149.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-8 | 1730.5 | 1674.7 | +55.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 7-8 | 1664.9 | 1778.5 | -113.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Smooth Roosters | 7-8 | 1664.4 | 1646.9 | +17.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W3 | 0.0% |
| 10 | The Warsaw Pact | 6-9 | 1653.5 | 1752.0 | -98.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-9 | 1584.0 | 1689.6 | -105.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L5 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-11 | 1697.9 | 1767.4 | -69.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| 4th and pinches | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Valued Customers |
| Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Meat Pistols |
| Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Moms rules |
| Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | The Warsaw Pact |
| Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Auto DraftKings |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
CRITICAL - PATRICK MAHOMES OUT FOR SEASON - Mahomes done for 2024 with knee injury - Gardner Minshew will start for KC vs TEN and beyond - IMPACT: Rashee Rice ceiling capped without Mahomes; still targets leader but expect reduced efficiency
ROSTER PLAYER STATUS - Jacoby Brissett (ARI): HEALTHY - Coming off 26.6 pt game vs HOU (best any QB vs HOU this year) - Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI): OUT - Heel injury, missed 2 straight, 4 of last 5. NOT on IR = could return Week 17 - Bucky Irving (TB): HEALTHY - RB11 since Week 8, leads NFL in yards after contact per attempt - Jordan Love (GB): HEALTHY but cold weather concern (35°F, not as cold as feared) - Josh Jacobs (GB): QUESTIONABLE - "Would not practice today" per LaFleur but may play vs CHI
OTHER KEY INJURIES - Saquon Barkley (PHI): DNP walkthrough (stinger) - Monitor - Davante Adams (NYJ): Not yet ruled out for Thursday vs SEA - Bam Knight (ARI): Season-ending IR - More work for backfield
HIGH TOTALS (Shootout Potential) 1. DET vs PIT: 51.5 - HIGHEST of week (Jameson Williams SMASH) 2. LAC @ DAL: 49.5 - Chargers D/ST elite matchup + Hampton in dome 3. ARI vs ATL: 47.5 - Brissett ceiling game, if MHJ played would be massive 4. GB @ CHI: 46.5 - Love/Reed in division rivalry
LOW TOTALS (Ceiling Concerns) 1. KC @ TEN: 37.5 - LOWEST total (Rice/Pacheco capped without Mahomes) 2. NYJ @ NO: 40.5 - Juwan Johnson floor play only
ELITE WR MATCHUPS (25th+ vs WR)
- Rashee Rice vs TEN (29th) - 22.0 fppg allowed to WRs
- Jayden Reed vs CHI (30th) - 22.1 fppg allowed to WRs
- McMillan vs TB (bench) - has upside but on bench roster
- JSN vs LAR (24th) - Rams vulnerable to WRs but elite vs RBs
ELITE D/ST MATCHUP - Chargers D/ST vs DAL (32nd worst) - Cowboys allow most to opposing D/STs
TOUGH RB MATCHUPS - Pacheco vs TEN (26th = good defense) - Only 3.4 fppg allowed - Spears vs IND (11th) - Tough matchup + backup role
LOCKED-IN STARTERS (High confidence) - Jacoby Brissett - QB3 projection, 20+ pt floor, elite matchup - Bucky Irving - Volume + opportunity, RB1 status locked in - Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR1 with Metcalf banged up - Rashee Rice - Still targets leader despite Minshew downgrade - Chargers D/ST - Best matchup in fantasy vs broken DAL
SOLID STARTERS - Omarion Hampton - Dome game, DAL 25th vs RB - Jameson Williams - 51.5 total in dome, ceiling play - Juwan Johnson - Incentive alert: needs 8 catches for 250k bonus
ACCEPTABLE BUT RISKY - Jordan Love - Cold weather + road division game - Jayden Reed - Watson questionable, cold game - Jason Myers - Solid kicker, neutral outlook
BENCH/AVOID - Isiah Pacheco - Mahomes out + TEN run defense (26th) - Tyjae Spears - Backup + tough IND matchup - MHJ - OUT (IR hold only)
Positive Buzz: Jacoby Brissett, Bucky Irving, Jameson Williams
Negative Buzz: Rashee Rice (Mahomes out), MHJ (still out)
Mixed Buzz: Jordan Love (weather), Isiah Pacheco (Mahomes)
No waiver recommendations this week.
No major injury concerns.
Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 16)
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 18.8 | 21.0 | 0.0 | -21.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.9 | 19.0 | 0.0 | -19.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Baker Mayfield | 16.6 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 15.9 | 17.0 | 0.0 | -17.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.8 | 17.0 | 0.0 | -17.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.4 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.8 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.2 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Opponent | WR | DK Metcalf | 13.5 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Trey McBride | 16.8 | 13.0 | 0.0 | -13.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 4.4 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Rico Dowdle | 15.2 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 11.2 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Michael Wilson | 13.4 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.3 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Rome Odunze | 12.6 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Opponent | K | Harrison Butker | 8.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.7 | 8.5 | 0.0 | -8.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Jaguars D/ST | 5.7 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.2 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 7.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 14.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | K | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | K | Eddy Pineiro | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Patriots D/ST | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chiefs D/ST | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_014 (2025-12-15)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.5 | 10.0 | 24.0 | +14.0 |
| Free Agent | TE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 0.0 | - | 12.0 | +12.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.9 | 17.0 | 26.4 | +9.4 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Steelers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 9.0 | +9.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.2 | 13.0 | 4.5 | -8.5 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Bears D/ST | 6.6 | 10.0 | 18.0 | +8.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 16.0 | 8.1 | -7.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 10.8 | 10.0 | 2.4 | -7.6 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 13.9 | 13.0 | 20.6 | +7.6 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.6 | 25.0 | 18.3 | -6.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 8.1 | 8.0 | 14.4 | +6.4 |
| Our Team | QB | Marcus Mariota | 18.1 | 21.0 | 14.7 | -6.3 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 4.2 | 5.0 | -1.0 | -6.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Chuba Hubbard | 0.0 | - | 4.8 | +4.8 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 11.0 | 7.0 | -4.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.2 | 16.0 | 12.1 | -3.9 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 10.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | -3.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -2.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 10.1 | 7.0 | 5.6 | -1.4 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 14.8 | 14.0 | 13.9 | -0.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.