Week 16 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-17 22:14

65%
Win Probability
+18.0
Projected Margin
CI: [-2.0 to +38.0]
1
Boom Potential
Chargers D/ST
5
Bust Risk
Jayden Reed (52%), Omarion Hampton (59%), Bucky Irving (48%), Juwan Johnson (57%), Jameson Williams (43%)

Start/Sit Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love Higher projection (21.0 vs 16.0)
RB1: Start Bucky Irving over Omarion Hampton Higher projection (15.0 vs 14.0)
RB2: Start Omarion Hampton over Tyjae Spears Higher projection (14.0 vs 8.5)
WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Jameson Williams Higher projection (19.0 vs 17.0)
WR2: Start Jameson Williams over Rashee Rice Higher projection (17.0 vs 15.0)
D/ST: Start Chargers D/ST over Rams D/ST Higher projection (12.0 vs 7.0)
FLEX: Start Jayden Reed over Rashee Rice DEBATE RESULT (4/4 unanimous): Rice in concussion protocol (DNP Wed, 15-20% play prob). Reed healthy, WR1 with Watson OUT. EV: Reed 11.6 vs wait strategy 9.5. Saturday 8:20 PM lock.

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett ATL18.821.0BOOMMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving CAR15.215.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Omarion Hampton DAL13.214.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba LAR20.919.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams PIT15.917.0BOOMMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson NYJ9.110.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers LAR8.310.0MODERATEMEDIUM
D/ST Chargers D/ST DAL4.412.0BOOMMEDIUM
WR Jayden Reed CHI11.211.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD Chiefs D/ST (D/ST) 53% boom / 18% bust
ADD Chargers D/ST (D/ST) 52% boom / 17% bust
ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 47% boom / 20% bust
Protected (Playoffs)

Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts))

Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 16 playoff semifinal against 4th and pinches (10-5). Our 9-6 Valued Customers face a critical matchup with ESPN projecting us as 2-point underdogs (123.5 vs 125.5). Key advantage: Jacoby Brissett has emerged as a matchup-proof QB3, posting 20+ points in every Arizona start, facing a vulnerable Falcons defense in a dome. The Chargers D/ST draw the best matchup in fantasy against a broken Cowboys offense (32nd worst). Concerns center on Rashee Rice's ceiling capped by Mahomes injury (Minshew starts) and MHJ remaining OUT with a heel injury.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 16)

0.0 - 0.0 vs 4th and pinches

Games Pending (17)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 18.8 21.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 15.2 15.0
Omarion Hampton RB RB 13.2 14.0
Jameson Williams WR WR 15.9 17.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 20.9 19.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 9.1 10.0
Rashee Rice WR RB/WR/TE 17.8 15.0
Jason Myers K K 8.3 10.0
Chargers D/ST D/ST D/ST 4.3 12.0
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE 7.5 6.0
Isiah Pacheco (bench) RB BE 9.1 8.0
Jayden Reed (bench) WR BE 11.2 11.0
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE 17.4 16.0
Rams D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 5.2 7.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 13.1 11.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE 8.7 8.5
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR IR 14.2 ---
0.0 Actual
133.0 LLM Total
123.6 ESPN Total

Opponent: 4th and pinches

Opponent Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Baker Mayfield QB QB 16.6 18.0
Michael Carter RB RB 11.0 ---
Rico Dowdle RB RB 15.2 12.0
DK Metcalf WR WR 13.5 14.0
Michael Wilson WR WR 13.4 11.0
Trey McBride TE TE 16.8 13.0
Jahmyr Gibbs RB RB/WR/TE 23.8 17.0
Harrison Butker K K 8.0 9.0
Jaguars D/ST D/ST D/ST 5.7 8.0
Aaron Rodgers (bench) QB BE 14.8 ---
Colby Parkinson (bench) TE BE 10.0 ---
Jordan Addison (bench) WR BE 10.5 ---
Kareem Hunt (bench) RB BE 10.5 ---
Mason Taylor (bench) TE BE 0.0 ---
Rome Odunze (bench) WR BE 0.0 10.0
Romeo Doubs (bench) WR BE 9.6 ---
0.0 Opp Actual
110.0 Opp LLM Total
124.0 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: +23.0 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 17.4 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 53% MODERATE, 21% BOOM. XGB: 52% moderate, 27% boom. Both agree on MODERATE. Cold weather (35°F) limits ceiling but CHI allows 22.4 fppg to QBs (23rd). Bench QB behind Brissett. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 9.0-24.0 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN14.817.013.9-0.9
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 18.8 | LLM 21.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14% boom (this week). MC strongly favors BOOM mode - Brissett has 20+ floor in every AZ start. ATL allows top-6 QB in 2 of 3 weeks. Dome game, high total (46.5). Trust MC historical pattern. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 21.0 pts (within 12.4-30.4 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU13.916.020.6+6.7
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Bucky Irving (TB vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 59% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 48% bust (this week). MC/XGB disagree - XGB predicts bust but Irving is RB11 since Week 8, leads NFL in YAC/att. Trust MC volume/opportunity. CAR 22nd vs RB. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within 8.2-20.2 range).

Context: O/U: 45.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 59% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15ATL15.214.08.1-7.1
14NO16.416.016.1-0.3
13ARI11.812.016.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 8.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 61% MODERATE. XGB: 47% moderate. Both favor MODERATE but low ceiling. Backup RB, IND 11th vs RB. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.5 pts (within 2.7-14.7 range).

Context: O/U: 37.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs DAL)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 25% BOOM. XGB: 59% bust. MC/XGB disagree - but Hampton in dome game (49.5 total), DAL 25th vs RB. Trust game environment over XGB bust signal. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 6.1-18.1 range).

Context: O/U: 49.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 59% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC11.710.07.5-4.2
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 61% BUST. XGB: 58% bust. BOTH agree BUST. Giants offense struggling, MIN defense solid, cold weather. Deep bench. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within -1.0-6.5 range at upper end).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 70% BUST (historical). XGB: 60% bust. BOTH agree on BUST. Mahomes OUT = Minshew starts. TEN 26th vs RB (good defense). Low total (37.5). Weather concerns. Bench play. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within 1.0-8.5 range).

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 19.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 44% MODERATE, 27% BOOM. XGB: 66% moderate. Both align on MODERATE. WR1 with Metcalf banged up, LAR 24th vs WR. Thursday night spotlight. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 19.0 pts (within 12.4-24.4 range).

Context: O/U: 44.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND20.622.018.3-2.3
14ATL20.922.028.1+7.2
13MIN21.924.04.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
  • Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST, 37% MODERATE. XGB: 62% moderate. Rookie on bench, CAR offense limited. Weather-neutral. Mode: MODERATE (bench). Projection: 11.0 pts (within 7.7-19.7 range).

Context: O/U: 45.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: INJURY: Heel injury, OUT - missed 2 straight games, 4 of last 5. NOT on IR so could return Week 17. IR stash only. Mode: OUT. Projection: 0.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 17.8 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 39% BOOM, 37% BUST. XGB: 45% moderate. High variance but MAHOMES OUT - Minshew downgrade caps ceiling. TEN 29th vs WR elite matchup but low total (37.5). Reduce from BOOM to MODERATE. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within 10.0-22.0 range).

Context: O/U: 37.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs PIT)

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 17.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM, 44% MODERATE. XGB: 44% moderate, 43% bust. MC/XGB lean moderate but HIGHEST total of week (51.5) in dome. Lions offense elite. BOOM environment. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 17.0 pts (within 16.9-31.9 range at low end).

Context: O/U: 49.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAR13.918.026.4+12.5
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • 3-game streak of beating projections
  • Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Jayden Reed (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 53% MODERATE. XGB: 52% bust. Watson questionable, cold weather (35°F). CHI 30th vs WR elite matchup but Love may struggle. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 11.0 pts (within 6.5-18.5 range).

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Juwan Johnson (NO vs NYJ)

Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 45% MODERATE, 30% BOOM. XGB: 57% bust. MC/XGB disagree - but INCENTIVE ALERT: needs 8 catches for 250k bonus. Saints may target him. NYJ 16th vs TE. Dome game. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 4.3-13.3 range).

Context: O/U: 40.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 57% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15CAR9.710.07.0-2.7
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 17.4 | LLM 16.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%

Notes: MC: 53% MODERATE, 21% BOOM. XGB: 52% moderate, 27% boom. Both agree on MODERATE. Cold weather (35°F) limits ceiling but CHI allows 22.4 fppg to QBs (23rd). Bench QB behind Brissett. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 9.0-24.0 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN14.817.013.9-0.9
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs TB

Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 11.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 49% BUST, 37% MODERATE. XGB: 62% moderate. Rookie on bench, CAR offense limited. Weather-neutral. Mode: MODERATE (bench). Projection: 11.0 pts (within 7.7-19.7 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs ATL

Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 23%

Notes: INJURY: Heel injury, OUT - missed 2 straight games, 4 of last 5. NOT on IR so could return Week 17. IR stash only. Mode: OUT. Projection: 0.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs TEN

Projections: ESPN 17.8 | LLM 15.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 31%

Notes: MC: 39% BOOM, 37% BUST. XGB: 45% moderate. High variance but MAHOMES OUT - Minshew downgrade caps ceiling. TEN 29th vs WR elite matchup but low total (37.5). Reduce from BOOM to MODERATE. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within 10.0-22.0 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs KC

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 8.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37%

Notes: MC: 61% MODERATE. XGB: 47% moderate. Both favor MODERATE but low ceiling. Backup RB, IND 11th vs RB. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.5 pts (within 2.7-14.7 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs SEA

Projections: ESPN 5.2 | LLM 7.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 59%

Notes: MC: 40% BUST, 38% MODERATE. XGB: 59% bust. Both lean bust/moderate. SEA offense decent at home. Bench D/ST. Mode: MODERATE (low). Projection: 7.0 pts (within 3.2-15.2 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DET4.24.0-1.0-5.2
14ARI6.99.06.0-0.9
13CAR7.510.01.0-6.5
12TB5.7-20.0+14.3
11SEA5.4-5.0-0.4
10SF6.4-5.0-1.4
9NO8.2-10.0+1.8
7JAX6.7-9.0+2.3
6BAL6.2-16.0+9.8
5SF7.0--2.0-9.0
4IND5.7-6.0+0.3
3PHI5.2-7.0+1.8
2TEN7.4-9.0+1.6
1HOU5.6-12.0+6.4
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 7.4 pts vs 6.3 projected (+17%)
  • Trending down: 2.0 avg (last 3) vs 10.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs MIN

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 58%

Notes: MC: 61% BUST. XGB: 58% bust. BOTH agree BUST. Giants offense struggling, MIN defense solid, cold weather. Deep bench. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within -1.0-6.5 range at upper end).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs TEN

Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 70% BUST (historical). XGB: 60% bust. BOTH agree on BUST. Mahomes OUT = Minshew starts. TEN 26th vs RB (good defense). Low total (37.5). Weather concerns. Bench play. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within 1.0-8.5 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Jaguars D/ST (D/ST): 48% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Jaguars D/ST D/ST JAX 5.7 8.0 MODERATE 48% 32% 20% HIGH
DK Metcalf WR PIT 13.5 14.0 MODERATE 30% 50% 20% MEDIUM
Baker Mayfield QB TB 16.6 18.0 MODERATE 18% 59% 23% LOW
Trey McBride TE ARI 16.8 13.0 MODERATE 17% 63% 20% LOW
Harrison Butker K KC 8.0 9.0 MODERATE 16% 26% 57% LOW
Rico Dowdle RB CAR 15.2 12.0 MODERATE 14% 59% 27% LOW
Rome Odunze WR CHI 12.6 10.0 MODERATE 9% 44% 48% LOW
Michael Wilson WR ARI 13.4 11.0 MODERATE 8% 36% 56% LOW
Jahmyr Gibbs RB DET 23.8 17.0 MODERATE 7% 23% 70% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Jaguars D/ST: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 42%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 20%)

DK Metcalf: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 30% | Bust 20%)

Baker Mayfield: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 23%)

Trey McBride: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 20%)

Harrison Butker: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 57%)

Rico Dowdle: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 19%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 27%)

Rome Odunze: MC (BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 8%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 48%)

Michael Wilson: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 56%)

Jahmyr Gibbs: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 7% | Bust 70%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (8): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts))
ADD Chiefs D/ST D/ST,
Boom%53%
Bust%18%
EV7.6
BUST: 26% (-4-8) MODERATE: 44% (0-12) BOOM: 30% (6-21)
ADD Chargers D/ST D/ST,
Boom%52%
Bust%17%
EV9.1
BUST: 24% (-3-9) MODERATE: 44% (2-14) BOOM: 32% (7-22)
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%47%
Bust%20%
EV12.1
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)
ADD Zach Ertz TE,
Boom%28%
Bust%24%
EV10.2
BUST: 17% (-0-6) MODERATE: 50% (4-13) BOOM: 34% (11-23)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%27%
Bust%24%
EV7.9
BUST: 34% (-0-6) MODERATE: 45% (4-13) BOOM: 20% (9-21)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 7.6 53% 18% 0.0%
Chargers D/ST D/ST 9.1 52% 17% 0.0%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.1 47% 20% 0.0%
Zach Ertz TE 10.2 28% 24% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 7.9 27% 24% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 10.7 26% 26% 0.0%
Commanders D/ST D/ST 7.8 24% 38% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 8.0 22% 28% 0.0%
Patriots D/ST D/ST 8.8 22% 43% 0.0%
Bears D/ST D/ST 8.4 20% 30% 0.0%
Cooper Kupp WR 9.9 18% 48% 0.0%
Eddy Pineiro K 10.0 17% 45% 0.0%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB 7.4 16% 45% 0.0%
Quentin Johnston WR 11.9 15% 39% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.9 15% 48% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Justin Fields 16.4 BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% 14% 50%
Sam Darnold 15.5 BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:24% 13% 44%
Kyler Murray 16.8 BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% 11% 54%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.1 BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% 47% 20%
Isiah Pacheco 8.0 BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% 22% 28%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. 7.4 BUST:41%, MODERATE:56%, BOOM:2% 16% 45%
Trey Benson 8.7 BUST:33%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% 12% 57%
Emanuel Wilson 7.7 BUST:56%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:10% 9% 60%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 9.3 BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% 8% 61%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Cooper Kupp 9.9 BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% 18% 48%
Quentin Johnston 11.9 BUST:29%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:18% 15% 39%
Garrett Wilson 14.9 BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:22% 15% 48%
Rashid Shaheed 10.1 BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30% 14% 53%
Keenan Allen 11.6 BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9% 9% 56%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Zach Ertz 10.2 BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34% 28% 24%
Evan Engram 7.9 BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% 27% 24%
Hunter Henry 9.7 BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% 8% 62%
Oronde Gadsden II 9.2 BUST:39%, MODERATE:47%, BOOM:14% 8% 58%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 10.7 26% 26%
Eddy Pineiro 10.0 17% 45%
Evan McPherson 9.5 9% 60%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chiefs D/ST 7.6 53% 18%
Chargers D/ST 9.1 52% 17%
Commanders D/ST 7.8 24% 38%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 16 | Generated: 2025-12-17 22:13

Matchup Summary

65.0%

Win Probability

+18.0
Expected Margin
133.0
My Team (LLM Proj)
110.0
Opponent (Proj)
33.1
Margin Std Dev
124.6
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -37.6 pts | Median: +5.5 pts | Ceiling: +47.5 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 21.0 4.1-27.9 ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 13% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 15.0 5.1-23.9 ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 10% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 14.0 3.7-24.0 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 18% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 19.0 6.4-30.3 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rashee Rice WR MED 15.0 6.6-27.4 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 3% Rashee Rice
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 17.0 4.2-26.2 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 14% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 10.0 2.9-16.7 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 22% Juwan Johnson
Chargers D/ST D/ST HIGH 12.0 0.9-18.0 ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 28% Chargers D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 10.0 5.4-18.9 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 8% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 16.0 6.7-27.5 ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 5% Jordan Love
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 8.5 2.6-18.0 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 28% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 6.0 0.6-18.1 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 53% Devin Singletary
Isiah Pacheco RB HIGH 8.0 2.2-15.0 ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 43% Isiah Pacheco
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 11.0 4.9-25.6 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 11% Tetairoa McMillan
Jayden Reed WR HIGH 11.0 4.5-21.4 ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 13% Jayden Reed
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 7.0 1.1-18.3 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 34% Rams D/ST

IR

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 0.0 3.8-21.3 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 17% Marvin Harrison Jr.

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Baker Mayfield QB MED 18.0 6.5-28.0 ↑15+: 59% | ↓5-: 5% Baker Mayfield
Jahmyr Gibbs RB HIGH 17.0 7.5-39.7 ↑15+: 61% | ↓5-: 1% Jahmyr Gibbs
Rico Dowdle RB HIGH 12.0 3.3-27.4 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 17% Rico Dowdle
Michael Carter RB HIGH 8.7 1.2-17.1 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 32% Michael Carter
DK Metcalf WR HIGH 14.0 5.0-22.6 ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 10% DK Metcalf
Michael Wilson WR HIGH 11.0 3.3-30.5 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 26% Michael Wilson
Trey McBride TE MED 13.0 8.3-29.4 ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 0% Trey McBride
Jaguars D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.0 0.4-17.8 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 31% Jaguars D/ST
Harrison Butker K HIGH 9.0 2.9-14.7 ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 26% Harrison Butker

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Aaron Rodgers QB HIGH 14.8 5.7-25.1 ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 7% Aaron Rodgers
Kareem Hunt RB HIGH 10.3 2.4-20.0 ↑15+: 24% | ↓5-: 28% Kareem Hunt
Rome Odunze WR HIGH 10.0 3.0-21.8 ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 27% Rome Odunze
Jordan Addison WR HIGH 12.2 5.4-21.2 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 8% Jordan Addison
Romeo Doubs WR HIGH 10.3 2.6-20.3 ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 26% Romeo Doubs
Colby Parkinson TE HIGH 9.3 2.3-19.2 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 31% Colby Parkinson
Mason Taylor TE HIGH 7.6 1.3-15.5 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 38% Mason Taylor

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 17% @ 24.3 59% @ 14.2 25% @ 5.9 13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 27% @ 28.7 44% @ 18.4 29% @ 7.6 18.1
Rashee Rice WR 39% @ 24.4 24% @ 16.0 37% @ 8.2 16.4
Omarion Hampton RB 25% @ 23.1 43% @ 12.1 32% @ 5.2 12.6
Jason Myers K 25% @ 18.3 44% @ 11.9 31% @ 6.5 11.8
Juwan Johnson TE 30% @ 14.9 45% @ 8.8 25% @ 3.7 9.4
Jameson Williams WR 29% @ 24.4 44% @ 15.7 28% @ 5.4 15.3
Jacoby Brissett QB 74% @ 21.4 2% @ 14.7 23% @ 5.9 17.6
Chargers D/ST D/ST 36% @ 15.0 42% @ 8.4 22% @ 2.8 9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Chargers D/STD/ST4.412.0BOOM55.0%29.8%15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR14.20.0OUT42.1%35.4%22.6%
Jordan LoveQB17.416.0MODERATE26.7%52.3%20.9%
Rashee RiceWR17.815.0MODERATE23.7%45.1%31.3%
Jason MyersK8.310.0MODERATE23.3%55.1%21.6%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.110.0MODERATE17.9%25.6%56.6%
Tetairoa McMillanWR13.111.0MODERATE16.9%61.6%21.5%
Tyjae SpearsRB8.78.5MODERATE16.1%46.9%37.0%
Jacoby BrissettQB18.821.0BOOM13.7%50.2%36.1%
Bucky IrvingRB15.215.0MODERATE12.9%38.9%48.2%
Jayden ReedWR11.211.0MODERATE12.9%35.6%51.5%
Jameson WilliamsWR15.917.0BOOM12.3%44.4%43.4%
Isiah PachecoRB9.18.0BUST11.9%28.2%59.9%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR20.919.0MODERATE11.4%65.9%22.7%
Rams D/STD/ST5.27.0MODERATE10.8%30.2%59.0%
Devin SingletaryRB7.56.0BUST9.8%31.8%58.4%
Omarion HamptonRB13.214.0MODERATE8.7%32.5%58.8%

League Standings

Week 16 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-5 1861.3 1676.5 +184.8 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 10-5 1771.1 1765.4 +5.7 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 100.0%
3 Valued Customers ← 9-6 1822.8 1558.6 +264.2 0.0 vs 0.0 W5 100.0%
4 Ryan's Rowdy Team 8-7 1759.9 1725.0 +35.0 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 100.0%
5 Wookie of the Year 8-7 1705.9 1731.9 -26.0 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 0.0%
6 Meat Pistols 8-7 1515.0 1664.9 -149.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-8 1730.5 1674.7 +55.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
8 Moms rules 7-8 1664.9 1778.5 -113.6 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 0.0%
9 Smooth Roosters 7-8 1664.4 1646.9 +17.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W3 0.0%
10 The Warsaw Pact 6-9 1653.5 1752.0 -98.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 0.0%
11 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-9 1584.0 1689.6 -105.6 0.0 vs 0.0 L5 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-11 1697.9 1767.4 -69.5 0.0 vs 0.0 L4 0.0%

Week 16 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 0.0 @ 0.0 Ryan's Rowdy Team
4th and pinches 0.0 @ 0.0 Valued Customers
Wookie of the Year 0.0 @ 0.0 Meat Pistols
Torta Pounders Football Club 0.0 @ 0.0 Moms rules
Smooth Roosters 0.0 @ 0.0 The Warsaw Pact
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 0.0 @ 0.0 Auto DraftKings

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Week 16 Research Analysis (Playoff Semifinal)

Key News & Injury Updates

CRITICAL - PATRICK MAHOMES OUT FOR SEASON - Mahomes done for 2024 with knee injury - Gardner Minshew will start for KC vs TEN and beyond - IMPACT: Rashee Rice ceiling capped without Mahomes; still targets leader but expect reduced efficiency

ROSTER PLAYER STATUS - Jacoby Brissett (ARI): HEALTHY - Coming off 26.6 pt game vs HOU (best any QB vs HOU this year) - Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI): OUT - Heel injury, missed 2 straight, 4 of last 5. NOT on IR = could return Week 17 - Bucky Irving (TB): HEALTHY - RB11 since Week 8, leads NFL in yards after contact per attempt - Jordan Love (GB): HEALTHY but cold weather concern (35°F, not as cold as feared) - Josh Jacobs (GB): QUESTIONABLE - "Would not practice today" per LaFleur but may play vs CHI

OTHER KEY INJURIES - Saquon Barkley (PHI): DNP walkthrough (stinger) - Monitor - Davante Adams (NYJ): Not yet ruled out for Thursday vs SEA - Bam Knight (ARI): Season-ending IR - More work for backfield

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

HIGH TOTALS (Shootout Potential) 1. DET vs PIT: 51.5 - HIGHEST of week (Jameson Williams SMASH) 2. LAC @ DAL: 49.5 - Chargers D/ST elite matchup + Hampton in dome 3. ARI vs ATL: 47.5 - Brissett ceiling game, if MHJ played would be massive 4. GB @ CHI: 46.5 - Love/Reed in division rivalry

LOW TOTALS (Ceiling Concerns) 1. KC @ TEN: 37.5 - LOWEST total (Rice/Pacheco capped without Mahomes) 2. NYJ @ NO: 40.5 - Juwan Johnson floor play only

Matchup Deep Dives

ELITE WR MATCHUPS (25th+ vs WR) - Rashee Rice vs TEN (29th) - 22.0 fppg allowed to WRs - Jayden Reed vs CHI (30th) - 22.1 fppg allowed to WRs
- McMillan vs TB (bench) - has upside but on bench roster - JSN vs LAR (24th) - Rams vulnerable to WRs but elite vs RBs

ELITE D/ST MATCHUP - Chargers D/ST vs DAL (32nd worst) - Cowboys allow most to opposing D/STs

TOUGH RB MATCHUPS - Pacheco vs TEN (26th = good defense) - Only 3.4 fppg allowed - Spears vs IND (11th) - Tough matchup + backup role

Final Confidence Tiers

LOCKED-IN STARTERS (High confidence) - Jacoby Brissett - QB3 projection, 20+ pt floor, elite matchup - Bucky Irving - Volume + opportunity, RB1 status locked in - Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR1 with Metcalf banged up - Rashee Rice - Still targets leader despite Minshew downgrade - Chargers D/ST - Best matchup in fantasy vs broken DAL

SOLID STARTERS - Omarion Hampton - Dome game, DAL 25th vs RB - Jameson Williams - 51.5 total in dome, ceiling play - Juwan Johnson - Incentive alert: needs 8 catches for 250k bonus

ACCEPTABLE BUT RISKY - Jordan Love - Cold weather + road division game - Jayden Reed - Watson questionable, cold game - Jason Myers - Solid kicker, neutral outlook

BENCH/AVOID - Isiah Pacheco - Mahomes out + TEN run defense (26th) - Tyjae Spears - Backup + tough IND matchup - MHJ - OUT (IR hold only)

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Positive Buzz: Jacoby Brissett, Bucky Irving, Jameson Williams

Negative Buzz: Rashee Rice (Mahomes out), MHJ (still out)

Mixed Buzz: Jordan Love (weather), Isiah Pacheco (Mahomes)

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 16)

Best two FA additions and who to drop for each
Round 1: Opening Arguments
🔼 CEILING HIGH
DROP: Jason Myers, Bears D/ST | ADD: Ka'imi Fairbairn, Chargers D/ST
Playoffs require MAXIMUM CEILING plays. Fairbairn gives you a top-2 kicker floor with 50+ yard upside every week. Chargers D/ST faces a completely broken Cowboys offense that's hemorrhaging points while Bears face a high-total divisional shootout.
🔽 FLOOR HIGH
DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Ka'imi Fairbairn, Tyler Allgeier
These moves prioritize proven weekly consistency over speculative upside. Fairbairn (K4, 11.5 PPG) gives elite insurance behind Myers, while Allgeier's 7.8 PPG floor strengthens RB depth. Dropping Bears D/ST (bad matchup) and Mariota (QB3, risky floor vs PHI) removes volatility.
⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH
DROP: Rams D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Patriots D/ST, Chiefs D/ST
Rostering three QBs in the playoffs is a strategic error when only one starts. Converting Mariota (QB26, minimal upside) into Chiefs D/ST (Top 3, elite matchup) maximizes expected value. Upgrading from Rams D/ST to Patriots D/ST shores up defensive flexibility.
🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH
DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco
The consensus is obsessed with 'keeping depth' and 'weekly flexibility,' but playoff fantasy is about CEILING. Chargers vs DAL and Pacheco's playoff role with the Chiefs offer genuine league-winning upside that your current roster lacks. Championship week demands aggression.
Fact Check
✅ MULTIPLE: "FLOOR: Myers is K1 - CORRECT (87 total pts, league" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "ALL: Bears D/ST 2.9 proj bad matchup vs GB - CORRE" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "SYNTHESIS: Mariota QB26 vs Eagles - CORRECT" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "CONTRARIAN: Chargers 52% XGB boom - CORRECT" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "ALL: Cowboys allow 30+ PPG - CORRECT" CORRECT
❌ CEILING: "Drop Myers for Fairbairn (K2)" FALSE (actual: Myers is K1 (87 pts) vs Fairbairn K4 (78 pts) - REJECTED. Never drop K1.)
❌ CONTRARIAN: "Chargers play Patriots Week 17" FALSE (actual: Chargers play TEXANS Week 17, not Patriots. Schedule error.)
Round 2: Rebuttals
🔼 CEILING HIGH
DROP: Bears D/ST | ADD: Chargers D/ST
[Ack] Fact-check correct: Myers K1 (87 pts) > Fairbairn K4 (78 pts). Retracted. [Challenge SYNTHESIS] Patriots D/ST over Chargers is wrong - Chargers have superior matchup vs DAL [Concede] FLOOR correctly identified Mariota as expendable QB3
🔽 FLOOR HIGH
DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco
[Ack] Validated: Myers K1 status confirmed [Challenge CEILING] Your original Myers drop would have been catastrophic [Concede] CONTRARIAN's Pacheco argument has merit - playoff ceiling matters
⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH
DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco
[Ack] Concede Chargers > Patriots for Week 16 matchup [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Week 17 Chargers schedule claim was FALSE [Concede] Chargers D/ST is correct Week 16 play regardless of Week 17
🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH
DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco
[Ack] Corrected: Chargers Week 17 opponent is Texans, not Patriots [Challenge CEILING] At least I didn't try to drop the K1 kicker [Concede] FLOOR's conservative approach on Myers was correct
Consensus: Unanimous
DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco
4/4 agents agree
Dissent: 4/4 agents aligned after Round 2: Drop Bears D/ST (52% XGB boom vs DAL) and Mariota (QB3 expendable). Myers drop REJECTED by fact-check - he's K1 with 87 total points.
Week 16 starting lineup optimization
Round 1: Opening Arguments
🔼 CEILING HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
The current lineup maximizes ceiling with Brissett's 72% MC BOOM rate in dome, JSN/Williams/Rice all in favorable matchups, and Hampton in dome vs DAL. No changes needed - this is an optimized ceiling lineup.
🔽 FLOOR HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
Current starters provide strong floors: Brissett's consistent production, Irving's RB1 volume, and elite WR trio. Bench depth is adequate with Love as QB backup. No changes recommended.
⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
Expected value analysis confirms current lineup is optimal. Brissett > Love (dome advantage), Hampton > Pacheco (weather), Williams as FLEX maximizes EV. All starters should remain.
🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM
DROP: | ADD:
Consider Love over Brissett (higher XGB boom 26.7% vs 13.7%) and Rice over McMillan at FLEX for target share upside. However, given weather concerns, consensus lineup is defensible.
Consensus: Unanimous
KEEP ALL STARTERS - Lineup is optimized
4/4 agents agree
Full lineup optimization for Week 16 playoff matchup after waiver claims (Pacheco, Reed, Chargers added)
Round 1: Opening Arguments
🔼 CEILING HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
In a playoff semifinal, we need boom-or-bust ceiling plays over safe floors. Brissett's 72% MC BOOM rate in a dome environment gives us QB1 upside, while the Chargers defense facing the league's worst offense (Cowboys allowing 30+ PPG) provides elite D/ST ceiling with 55% XGB boom probability. Williams in Detroit's high-scoring dome game (49.5 total) over Reed's weather-compromised Chicago matchup maximizes our path to 130+ points.
🔽 FLOOR HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
This lineup prioritizes proven floors in playoff-critical slots: Brissett's elite floor in Arizona system (20+ pts in every AZ start), dome game for Hampton over weather-compromised Pacheco (68% MC bust in rain/wind), and Chargers D/ST elite matchup over Rams' risky Seattle game. Every decision minimizes bust probability while maintaining competitive scoring to match opponent's 125 pt projection.
⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
This lineup maximizes expected value at 125.3 pts while preserving critical ceiling through Brissett's 72% BOOM rate in dome, Williams in Detroit's elite offense, and Chargers' 55% XGB boom signal vs Cooper Rush. Hampton over Pacheco adds 5.1 EV points - the largest single optimization available - while avoiding weather disaster. The +8.5 pts of total optimization vs alternative lineups provides the edge needed for playoff advancement.
🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM
DROP: | ADD:
The consensus is fading Love on weather fears that don't match forecast reality (clear/dry), sleeping on Pacheco's volume advantage as lead back, and missing Reed's target spike with Watson out. Playoff week demands upside over 'safe' dome games - Love's 26.7% XGB boom probability and Reed's WR1 usage with Watson sidelined offer contrarian edges the field is missing.
Round 2: Rebuttals
🔼 CEILING HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] Correct - Chargers are 1st in points allowed (17.7 PPG), not third-down defense. My core argument stands. [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Reed XGB boom 27.3% [Concede] CONTRARIAN correctly notes XGB gives Love higher boom (26.7%) than Brissett (13.7%), but MC's 72% boom for Brissett in dome trumps XGB signal.
🔽 FLOOR HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] Fair point - Brissett's Patriots starts were poor. Revised claim: 20+ pts in every ARIZONA start. [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Watson OUT [Concede] Hampton's XGB 58.8% bust is concerning, but dome environment protects floor better than Pacheco's weather game.
⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] No fact-check issues. All EV calculations verified. [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Weather almost perfect for GB/CHI [Concede] Rams ESPN projection (5.2) exceeds Chargers (4.4), but MC EV and XGB boom favor Chargers.
🔮 CONTRARIAN LOW
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] Made significant data errors on Reed (MC bust 43.2% not 28%, XGB boom 12.9% not 27.3%) and Watson status. These errors undermine Reed recommendation. [Challenge FLOOR] Pacheco 68% bust makes him unplayable [Concede] Given Reed data errors and Watson's uncertain status, I concede J.Williams is the safer FLEX play.
Consensus: Majority
Lineup: QB Brissett, RB1 Irving, RB2 Hampton, WR1 JSN, WR2 Rice, TE Johnson, FLEX Williams, K Myers, DST Chargers
0/4 agents agree
Marvin Harrison Jr. IR decision: Hold, drop for WR FA, or swap for different IR stash (Nabers/Skattebo/Wilson)?
Round 1: Opening Arguments
🔼 CEILING HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
Zero-cost lottery ticket with league-winning upside. All IR alternatives (Wilson, Nabers, Skattebo) are OUT for season. MHJ 26.8% BOOM (12.7-27.7 pts) could be championship-winning if he returns Week 17.
🔽 FLOOR HIGH
DROP: Marvin Harrison Jr. | ADD:
All IR alternatives are OUT for season (Nabers torn ACL, Skattebo ankle surgery). Since IR swap is impossible, drop MHJ for roster flexibility to grab active FA if needed.
⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
EV analysis: MHJ has ~25% return probability with 12.1 EV = 3.0 expected pts. This beats 0.0 from dropping. IR slot costs nothing. All alternatives unavailable.
🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
Challenged consensus that swapping IR stashes helps. All alternatives (Nabers, Skattebo, Wilson) are EQUALLY or MORE likely to miss rest of season. If dropping MHJ, get ACTIVE FA, not another IR stash.
Fact Check
✅ MULTIPLE: "Malik Nabers: Torn ACL + meniscus Week 4, OUT for " CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "Cam Skattebo: Ankle dislocation + tibia fracture, " CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "Garrett Wilson: On IR since Week 11, effectively O" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ: NOT on IR (just inactive), but likely done fo" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ MC BOOM: 26.8%, MC EV: 12.1 pts" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "5 active WRs on roster (JSN, Rice, Williams, McMil" CORRECT
❌ CEILING: "Gannon expects MHJ to return" FALSE (actual: Technically true but experts believe he is done)
Round 2: Rebuttals
🔼 CEILING HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] Fact-check confirms all IR alternatives OUT for season - validates HOLD position [Challenge FLOOR] roster flexibility [Concede] FLOOR correctly identified IR swap was impossible - all alternatives season-ending
🔽 FLOOR LOW
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] Concede IR swap strategy was flawed - all alternatives OUT for season [Challenge CEILING] zero cost [Concede] IR swap idea disproven. No better stash exists.
⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] EV framework validated by fact-check [Challenge FLOOR] flexibility value [Concede] If elite Week 17 streamer appears, revisit decision
🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] Contrarian angle validated - IR swap was lateral move as predicted [Challenge SYNTHESIS] 25% return prob [Concede] CEILING correct about zero opportunity cost
Consensus: Majority
HOLD Marvin Harrison Jr. on IR
0/4 agents agree
Should I start Jayden Reed (GB, Sat 8:20pm) in FLEX over waiting for Rashee Rice (KC concussion protocol, Sun 1pm)?
Round 1: Opening Arguments
🔼 CEILING HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
Reed offers 27.7 pt BOOM ceiling (9.7% probability) as GB's WR1 with Watson out. Rice faces catastrophic downside: concussion protocol, DNP Wed, backup QB Minshew, eliminated Chiefs. Lock in 100% certainty vs gambling on concussed receiver.
🔽 FLOOR HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
Reed is 100% healthy with WR1 role. Rice faces catastrophic floor risk: DNP Wednesday, concussion protocol, backup QB, eliminated team. With 23-pt lead, protecting against zero from Rice is paramount. Reed's 37.4% bust (6.3 pts) beats Rice's protocol uncertainty.
⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
Rice has <20% play probability (DNP Wed + protocol + Chiefs eliminated). Reed's guaranteed 11.6 EV beats wait strategy: 0.18×16.3 + 0.82×8.0 = 9.5 EV. With 23-pt cushion, floor stability > boom upside.
🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM
DROP: | ADD:
25-33% of NFL concussions clear in one week. Rice has 4 days to progress through protocol. Chiefs being eliminated INCREASES his motivation - he's proving himself for 2026 contract. Reed has 51.5% XGB bust probability.
Fact Check
✅ MULTIPLE: "Reed MC BOOM 27.7 pts (9.7% prob) - CORRECT" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "Reed XGB bust 51.5% - CORRECT" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "Rice MC BOOM 39.1% - CORRECT" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "Rice DNP Wednesday - CORRECT" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "Mahomes OUT (ACL/LCL surgery) - CORRECT" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "Chiefs eliminated 6-8 - CORRECT" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "Reed NOT on injury report - CORRECT" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "23-point matchup cushion - CORRECT" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "Median 9 days to clear protocol - CORRECT" CORRECT
❌ CONTRARIAN: "Reed 9.2 PPG after hot start" FALSE (actual: 2025 data not 2024)
Round 2: Rebuttals
🔼 CEILING HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] Weather data verified from weekly_analysis file [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Reed stats from 2024 [Concede] XGB calibration issues may help Reed's case
🔽 FLOOR HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] Rice bust floor is 8.2, not 0.0 as stated [Challenge SYNTHESIS] 18% play probability [Concede] DNP Wednesday does justify 15-20% estimate
⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] Zero fact-check penalties - framework validated [Challenge CONTRARIAN] multiple data errors [Concede] 18% may be conservative but DNP Wed justifies it
🔮 CONTRARIAN LOW
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] Accepts responsibility for data errors on Reed stats [Challenge CEILING] selective XGB use [Concede] Wait strategy EV is lower than initially argued
Consensus: Majority
START JAYDEN REED IN FLEX (Saturday 8:20 PM)
0/4 agents agree

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

11.8
Our Team MAE
17 players
12.4
Opponent MAE
9 players
0.0
Free Agent MAE
6 players
32
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 9.8
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 18.8 21.0 0.0 -21.0
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.9 19.0 0.0 -19.0
Opponent QB Baker Mayfield 16.6 18.0 0.0 -18.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 15.9 17.0 0.0 -17.0
Opponent RB Jahmyr Gibbs 23.8 17.0 0.0 -17.0
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.4 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.8 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.2 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Opponent WR DK Metcalf 13.5 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Opponent TE Trey McBride 16.8 13.0 0.0 -13.0
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 4.4 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Opponent RB Rico Dowdle 15.2 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.1 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 11.2 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Opponent WR Michael Wilson 13.4 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.3 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.1 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Opponent WR Rome Odunze 12.6 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Opponent K Harrison Butker 8.0 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.7 8.5 0.0 -8.5
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 9.1 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Opponent D/ST Jaguars D/ST 5.7 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.2 7.0 0.0 -7.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 7.5 6.0 0.0 -6.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 14.2 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent RB Isiah Pacheco 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent K Ka'imi Fairbairn 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent K Eddy Pineiro 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent D/ST Patriots D/ST 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent D/ST Chargers D/ST 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent D/ST Chiefs D/ST 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_014 (2025-12-15)

5.7
Our Team MAE
18 players
8.6
Free Agent MAE
3 players
21
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 6.2
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.5 10.0 24.0 +14.0
Free Agent TE Harold Fannin Jr. 0.0 - 12.0 +12.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.9 17.0 26.4 +9.4
Free Agent D/ST Steelers D/ST 0.0 - 9.0 +9.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.2 13.0 4.5 -8.5
Our Team D/ST Bears D/ST 6.6 10.0 18.0 +8.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 16.0 8.1 -7.9
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 10.8 10.0 2.4 -7.6
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 13.9 13.0 20.6 +7.6
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.6 25.0 18.3 -6.7
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 8.1 8.0 14.4 +6.4
Our Team QB Marcus Mariota 18.1 21.0 14.7 -6.3
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 4.2 5.0 -1.0 -6.0
Free Agent RB Chuba Hubbard 0.0 - 4.8 +4.8
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 11.0 7.0 -4.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.2 16.0 12.1 -3.9
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 10.3 6.0 2.8 -3.2
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 11.7 10.0 7.5 -2.5
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 10.1 7.0 5.6 -1.4
Our Team QB Jordan Love 14.8 14.0 13.9 -0.1
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 16 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 17.4 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
53%
BOOM
21%
10th percentile 6.8 pts
Median (50th) 15.5 pts
90th percentile 27.3 pts
MC (Historical)
21% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
59%
BOOM
17%
10th percentile 5.2 pts
Median (50th) 13.4 pts
90th percentile 23.7 pts
MC (Historical)
17% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 19.0 pts
ESPN 20.9 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 6.4 pts
Median (50th) 17.9 pts
90th percentile 29.9 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 13.1 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 4.9 pts
Median (50th) 10.1 pts
90th percentile 25.2 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 14.2 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.8 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 21.8 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
42% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 17.8 pts
BUST
37%
MODERATE
24%
BOOM
39%
10th percentile 6.5 pts
Median (50th) 15.7 pts
90th percentile 27.3 pts
MC (Historical)
39% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
24% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 8.5 pts
ESPN 8.7 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
61%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 2.6 pts
Median (50th) 7.5 pts
90th percentile 18.0 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.0 pts
90th percentile 24.3 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 8.3 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 5.4 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 18.9 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
23% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 9.1 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
30%
10th percentile 3.0 pts
Median (50th) 8.6 pts
90th percentile 16.6 pts
MC (Historical)
30% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 17.0 pts
ESPN 15.9 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 4.2 pts
Median (50th) 15.3 pts
90th percentile 26.3 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 7.0 pts
ESPN 5.2 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.2 pts
Median (50th) 7.8 pts
90th percentile 18.6 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 7.5 pts
BUST
61%
MODERATE
21%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 0.6 pts
Median (50th) 4.3 pts
90th percentile 17.7 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 21.0 pts
ESPN 18.8 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
74%
10th percentile 4.3 pts
Median (50th) 18.3 pts
90th percentile 27.9 pts
MC (Historical)
74% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Chargers D/ST (D/ST)
Chargers D/ST distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 4.4 pts
BUST
22%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
36%
10th percentile 0.9 pts
Median (50th) 8.9 pts
90th percentile 18.1 pts
MC (Historical)
36% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
55% BOOM
Isiah Pacheco (RB)
Isiah Pacheco distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 9.1 pts
BUST
70%
MODERATE
27%
BOOM
3%
10th percentile 2.2 pts
Median (50th) 5.7 pts
90th percentile 15.1 pts
MC (Historical)
3% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Jayden Reed (WR)
Jayden Reed distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 11.2 pts
BUST
37%
MODERATE
53%
BOOM
10%
10th percentile 4.6 pts
Median (50th) 10.1 pts
90th percentile 20.9 pts
MC (Historical)
10% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)
Jahmyr Gibbs distribution
LLM 17.0 pts
ESPN 23.8 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 7.6 pts
Median (50th) 18.0 pts
90th percentile 39.4 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
7% BOOM
Rico Dowdle (RB)
Rico Dowdle distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
57%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 3.3 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 27.3 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Trey McBride (TE)
Trey McBride distribution
LLM 13.0 pts
ESPN 16.8 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
33%
BOOM
26%
10th percentile 8.3 pts
Median (50th) 16.0 pts
90th percentile 29.6 pts
MC (Historical)
26% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
DK Metcalf (WR)
DK Metcalf distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 13.5 pts
BUST
39%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
21%
10th percentile 4.9 pts
Median (50th) 11.4 pts
90th percentile 22.8 pts
MC (Historical)
21% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
30% BOOM
Baker Mayfield (QB)
Baker Mayfield distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 16.6 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
52%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 6.6 pts
Median (50th) 17.0 pts
90th percentile 27.7 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Rome Odunze (WR)
Rome Odunze distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 12.6 pts
BUST
51%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
8%
10th percentile 3.0 pts
Median (50th) 9.7 pts
90th percentile 22.0 pts
MC (Historical)
8% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Michael Wilson (WR)
Michael Wilson distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 13.4 pts
BUST
55%
MODERATE
29%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 3.3 pts
Median (50th) 8.6 pts
90th percentile 30.4 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
8% BOOM
Jaguars D/ST (D/ST)
Jaguars D/ST distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 5.7 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
34%
BOOM
42%
10th percentile 0.4 pts
Median (50th) 8.6 pts
90th percentile 17.9 pts
MC (Historical)
42% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
48% BOOM
Harrison Butker (K)
Harrison Butker distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 8.0 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
46%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 2.8 pts
Median (50th) 7.6 pts
90th percentile 14.8 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM